Pictured: The ECMWF model June, July and August temperature anomaly forecast is updated.
On the 8th of each month the ECMWF issue a new month 1-6 forecast. The U.S. forecast for the summer season indicates a hot start to summer in the Southeast which is reasonable given the only region of the U.S. experiencing drought is in the Southeast States. In July the anomalous heat shifts to the Southwest where dryness is also coming on strong during the current spring. In August widespread anomalous heat is forecast the model.
Pictured: The ECMWF model June, July and August precipitation anomaly forecast is updated.
The June outlook is wet in Texas and the Upper Midwest followed by a dry (in June) reversal to wet weather in July across the Mid-South region. The southern half of the U.S. is drier than normal in August.
The ECMWF is average to below average reliability. However, the volatility of the forecast is market-worthy indicating no locked in pattern. The hot and dry August is suspect given the drenched soils of the Mid-South leading into summer.