Download the Climate Impact Company June, July and August Outlook for the U.S.
Pictured: Climate Impact Company projects the July 15 U.S. soil moisture regime (left). The North Pacific and North Atlantic are warmer than normal but have cooled the past 2-4 weeks somewhat related to a more active storm track during mid-spring causing a wetter U.S. pattern.
The projected mid-summer U.S. soil moisture pattern is not unlike the current regime featuring wet soils in important Growing Areas of the southern Plains to the Midwest. The Northwest is also wetter than normal. There is a tendency for large regions of wet soil moisture to encounter diminished risk of extreme heat and increased risk of clouds and showers. The dry-to-drought zones affecting the Southeast U.S. and possibly the Southwest States attract the greatest risk of anomalous heat. The SSTA predictors are lead by neutral ENSO and cool pools of ocean water across the North Pacific and central North Atlantic. If these cool pools hold there will be an increased tendency of a warm upper ridge pattern in the East, cool trough in the Northwest and a changeable pattern in the Great Plains.
Pictured: The Climate Impact Company precipitation anomaly outlooks for June, July and August.
The changeable upper air pattern in the Great Plains will cause widely variable climate each summer month. In June the western and northern Plains are wetter than normal while the eastern Plains where soil moisture is excessive are normally wet. In July wet weather is amplified across Kansas and into Nebraska. There certainly is no risk of drought in the Great Plains through mid-summer. In August the East-Central U.S. is forecast to turn drier as a weak El Nino climate develops causing increased risk of wet weather in the Gulf region with drier conditions to the north.
