Afternoon Weather Update

May 17, 3:44 pm | Weather | Share this:

us 1 517US Forecast Wetter Nearby; Wet/Cool Pattern Possible through Mid-June: The major forecasting models have trended just a bit wetter through early next week, with cumulative totals now estimated in a range of 2-4” across OK, KS, MO, NE, IA and W IL through next Mon/Tues. Otherwise the outlook is little changed, and a shift to cooler temps lies in the offing. The CFS (NOAA) model’s 16-30 day outlook is at left, and notice that normal/below normal temp and above normal precip is indicated June 1-15. The extended range climate outlook has been wet/cool for several days now.

  Scattered showers will impact the Plains & W Midwest in the next 24 hours. The bulk of near term precip, however, falls on the weekend as a low pressure Trough moves slowly across the Plains. Totals Sat-Mon of .50-1.00” will be spread across the whole of the Central US. Totals in excess of 2” will favor much of the Plains and W Midwest, and even greater rainfall is expected across the OK, KS, MO and W IL. 

us 2 517  Drier and much cooler weather is forecast beyond the middle of next week. A deeper low pressure Trough sinks into the Plains/Midwest, bringing cooler air from Canada along with it as well as keeping meaningful precip isolated to the Plains, Delta and Southeast. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 40s & 50s across the N Plains and Great Lakes Region, and operational models don’t yet include any return of heat through June 1.

  As evidenced in the graphic at left, even very cold temps in May do not at all correlate with corn yield. However, amid slower than normal growth rates and a lack of GDD accumulation, it’s likely that the bulk of pollination, especially in the E Corn Belt, will occur in the second half of July, and the risk of heat-affected crops is elevated.