Pictured: The Climate Impact Company 2017 tropical cyclone outlook for the North Atlantic basin including hurricane generation areas and primary paths.
Download the Climate Impact Company 2017 North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone outlook
The Climate Impact Company 2017 North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season outlook has been increased since the preliminary outlook issued in early April. The updated forecast indicates 12 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes in 2017. The upward adjustment in seasonal activity is due to increased confidence that a moderate El Nino will not generate during the tropical cyclone season. The accumulated cyclone energy forecast is also increased to 111 which is close to climatology and the highest since 2012. By comparison ACE was only 45 last year despite 7 hurricanes. The projected upper air pattern during the peak of season (JUL/AUG/SEP) is a mean trough position over the Ohio Valley which should cause any Gulf systems to turn northeast quickly as they approach the north coast while systems approaching the East Coast turn north or northeast. The primary target for U.S. land-falling hurricanes in the Florida Panhandle and the North Carolina Coast.
