CBOT soy was sharply lower overnight on news from Brazil and selling continued on through the day, leaving futures down 31 cents in July, off 23 cents in November, and the July/November spread fell back to $.025 July premium. Soy product markets fell in similar trading with July meal dropping to the lowest price in 8 months. Commodity fund traders sold 23,000 soybeans and 8,000 contracts each in soymeal & soyoil.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that 75% of the Argentine soybean crop has been cut through this week, up from 67% last week and 61% last year. The Exchange held estimates for area and yield unchanged, for a total crop size of 57.5 MMTs, of which 44.3 MMTs has now been harvested.
The weather forecast shows rains moving across the Cornbelt starting Friday and continuing into early next week, followed by cooler and below normal temps. It has NOT been a great start to the crop year, and we await a summer rally to add to sales. However, it will likely take a few more days for the Brazilian related selling to slow. We expect Chinese buyers will turn more active buyers on this break.
