Download the Climate Impact Company June, July and August Climate Outlook for the U.S. Report
Pictured: The Climate Impact Company temperature and precipitation anomaly outlook for June.
June: Expect a volatile pattern in June across the U.S. the average of which produces anomalous heat across the Southeast which could be excessive while the Interior Northwest averages cooler than normal. The pattern is driven by an active MJO which is typical when ENSO is neutral. The hot weather risk is clearly across the eastern half of the U.S. and to a lesser extent California where soils are trending drier. Excessive heat is most likely in the Southeast. However, pulses of extreme heat can affect the Northeast Corridor as observed in June but followed by equally dramatic cool periods especially in the Northeast States. Texas is confidently forecast wetter than normal mostly by synoptic scale episodes linked to the transient MJO rather than early season tropical events. The North-Central U.S. is also wetter than normal and cool periods are likely there and westward to the northern Continental Divide.
Pictured: The Climate Impact Company temperature and precipitation anomaly outlook for July.
Analogs and dynamic models disagree on the extent of wet weather across the East for mid-summer. A consensus forecast was used which indicates a wet month of July in the Northeast Corridor and Midwest U.S. while only Texas and California are faced with a dry mid-summer. The persistence of anomalous heat in the South and East continues and now more confidently adds California and the Southeast States. The active MJO favors a wetter than indicated pattern in the Gulf of Mexico region. If so, areas to the north would be drier. An active MJO during mid-summer favors anomalous heat risk for California and the Northeast States.
Pictured: The Climate Impact Company temperature and precipitation outlook for August.
August is adjusted cooler in the Midwest with anomalous heat stretched across the southern states and also in the Northeast where humid conditions are likely. The Midwest to Northeast States are wetter than normal which is a substantial change from the previous forecast driven by the lack of an El Nino and marginal warm North Atlantic.
