** 6:30 AM CST CBOT Prices: July soybeans are up 3.00 cents at $9.56, July corn is up 1.50 cents at $3.74 while July wheat is up 3.25 cents at $4.385.
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! The week has started out firmer at the CBOT with trader’s trying to balance world currency values and the ongoing cool/wet weather across the Central US.
The volume of CBOT overnight trade was near average with just over 15,000 contracts of July corn, just over 16,000 contracts of July soybeans, and just over 7,000 contracts of July Chi wheat changing hands.
Weekend rainfall was about as expected with some heavy totals of 1-3.00” falling across the E Plains/SW Midwest with the remainder of the Midwest endured rains of .5-2.50”. We use the word “endured” with the soil moisture profile near a record and temps just not warming up to mid-May levels. This is leaving crops to look ragged with emergence and growth well behind a normal year. Unfortunately, the ‘17 spring has not been as kind of recent years.
US corn seeding is expected to reach 84-86%, soybeans 63-66%, and spring wheat seeding 90-93% in today’s NASS weekly crop progress report. US winter wheat seeding is expected to decline 1-2% to 49-50% GD/EX. The harvest is just underway across TX with yields being down 15-35% from last year.
The Central US weather forecast is wetter, but slightly warmer than what was expected last Friday. 4 storm systems look to push across the Central US in the next 2 weeks with the system in the 11-15 day period looking rather potent. US soils will not have much chance to dry, but the wettest of the weather is expected to shift north from MO/E KS into N MO/IA and S MN.
Cool to cold temps will prevail for another 3-4 days with there being a chance of frost across the far northern areas. High temps will range from the upper 50’s to the mid 70’s with lows in the middle 30’s to the lower 50’s.
Warming will occur Friday and the weekend, with another cool down during the closing days of May. The opening days of June (start of summer) look to remain cool with a potent storm passing across the Plains and Midwest. The pattern remains active and there is no evidence of any lasting warm/dry weather trend.
Brazilian President Temer is under acute pressure as an impeachment investigation/vote moves forward in the Brazilian Lower House. Temer in an impassioned speech on Saturday asked judges to validate the authenticity of bribery recordings. A decision and ruling on the authenticity is expected by midweek. New pressure on the Brazilian real is expected to start the week which could stimulate fresh cash soybean and corn sales by producers.
In other world ag markets, Paris wheat is up $1.25/MT at $167.00, with
Dalian Sept corn down 8 cents/Bu at $5.98 and Dalian Sept soymeal up $.50/MT at $397.25. Malaysian July palmoil futures closed 22 ringgits higher at 2,779.
Since late March, ARC research has argued for broad trading range in the grains/soy market. It’s becoming important that the Central US weather pattern shifts to warm/dry to help ragged/yellow looking crops mend. The forecast is not cooperating with additional wet weather into mid June. We doubt that any CBOT break can be sustained without improved Central US weather.
