** 6:30 AM CST CBOT Prices: July soybeans are down 4.75 cents at $9.5175, July corn is down 2.50 cents at $3.725 while July Chi wheat is down 3.00 cents at $4.3125.
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! It’s Tuesday and CBOT values have turned around from recent day gains as the weekly NASS Crop Progress/Condition Report did not show any big surprises.
US Plain’s winter wheat ratings were better than expected, but otherwise, the NASS weekly report was benign. 84% of the US corn crop, 53% of the US soybean and 90% of the US spring wheat crops were planted. 52% of the US winter wheat crop was rated GD/EX, up 1% from the prior week. NASS will start offering US corn crop condition ratings next Tuesday, the 1st of the season.
ARC has maintained that it’s the weather forecast following the US Memorial Day holiday that will be important to longer term CBOT price trends. The Central US spring has been one of the coldest/wettest on record. Key in June is whether some much needed warm/dry weather arrives to spur crop growth or will the same cool/wet trend continue? A range trade is expected at the CBOT into the US holiday unless there is a dramatic shift in the Central US weather forecast.
The US & EU weather model is in fair to good agreement on the 2 week forecast. A strong upper level Trough will slowly move through the Upper Midwest this week producing cool to cold temperatures and unsettled weather conditions. Rainfall totals will be widely scattered, but add up to near to above normal totals in a range of .25-1.50”, especially in the E Midwest.
As the Trough exits through the Lake States on Friday, a few days of seasonal temps and dry weather will be offered before the return of another system early next week. Three storm systems are noted over the next 14 days which looks to maintain a cool and wet profile. There is no indication of any lasting warm/dryness at least looking forward into June 5th. ARC sees the forecast as leaning supportive of CBOT values heading into the holiday.
The new White House Budget proposed slashing $46.5 Bil from the US Ag Budget over the next 10 years including cuts in crop revenue programs, food stamps and rural development. The proposed cuts will run into considerable resistance from members of the US Congress, but the Presidential Budget reflects the financial difficulties that will prevail in writing the new Farm Bill in 2018.
In other world ag markets, Sept Paris wheat is down $.50/MT at $166.75, with Dalian Sept corn down 2 cents/Bu at $5.96 and Dalian Sept soymeal down $.50/MT at $396.75. Malaysian July palmoil futures closed 41 ringgits lower at 2,742.
The N China Plains received needed rain overnight, but the forecast returns warm/dry weather for the next 1O days. Mostly dry/warm weather is expected across Western Europe. Both key ag areas will have to be closely monitored.
Not a lot of fresh news this AM, leaving the market to debate the impact of cool/wet Central US weather on Midwest crops into early June? More heavy rain during June is unwanted and would become a more important concern for yield.
