Firm overnight trade gave way to technical selling that took both new and old crop soybean contracts to the lowest level in a year. New speculative selling was the theme across the complex. Commodity fund traders were estimated as net sellers of; 6,000 soybean, 2,000 soymeal, and 2,500 soyoil contracts.
US soybean export sales were towards the top end of expectations, and also at a 4 week high. Total export commitments at 57.8 MMTs are record large and represent 104% of the latest USDA annual export estimate, with a record large 7 MMTs of outstanding sales. This after the USDA increased their export forecast in May to 2,050 Mil Bu. It’s possible that the USDA raises the forecast by another 20-30 Mil Bu.
While July and November soybean contracts both slipped to the lowest level in months, on a spot basis the market is still holding above the lows scored back in April. Slower and lower trade is expected ahead of the weekend, with market focus next week back on weather forecasts and Midwest planting progress. We expect key support at $9.20-10.30 to hold until ‘17 US soy production is known.
