** AgResource Daily Cattle Analysis: Cattle closed higher on Thursday and steady outlook is offered for early trade this morning. Early selling found good demand that carried cattle prices higher into the end of the day, leaving June $1.80 higher and August up $1.475 at the close. Slow trading is expected after the first hour, with the market to respond to the Cattle on Feed report that will be released at 11 AM CT.
The April Livestock Slaughter report showed total beef production at 1,963 Mil Lbs, 87% of March and 100% of a year ago. Total steer/heifer slaughter increased 2% from a year ago, and was at a 3 year high, however, fed beef production was down 1% year over year due to lighter carcass weights. The average steer/heifer carcass weight was at 831 Lbs, 21 lighter than in March and 24 Lbs under last year, as record basis pulled cattle supplies forward at a much faster rate.
The cash market is expected to trend lower in coming weeks, but the record basis is expected to offer support to June cattle on breaks. Cattle are shifting into a range trade.
** US Weather Pattern Discussion: The US and EU weather models are in only fair agreement beyond the next 5 days. The EU model is cooler/drier across the N Plains and the NW Midwest with heavy rains farther south across E TX, E OK, and the Gulf States. Our choice is the US GFS model based on its recent favorable track record and backing from the Canadian model. The forecast below reflects the thinking of the GFS.
A shift to warming temperatures is offered by the US model over the next 2 weeks with frequent storm systems in a fast moving southerly displaced jet stream. The attached graphic reflects the 6z GFS model view of rainfall over the next 10 days. Outside of KS/MO, none of the rainfall totals look to be heavy, but with systems passing across the Central US every 2-3 days, the rains will keep any planting progress slow (outside of the Northern Plains and NW Midwest).
The most potent storm is offered during the 11-15 day period which could produce .5-2.50” of rainfall. The wetter 11-15 day forecast is something that that is also offered by the EU model. The warmth will aid water besieged crops, but our concern remains one of too much water into mid June that caps US crop condition ratings.
** 10 Day GFS 6Z Rainfall Forecast:
