** It has been a mixed session of trade at the CBOT with corn, soybeans and wheat futures widely mixed in tepid volume. Soybeans have pushed to new monthly lows while the grains firm on spread unwinding. Traders are well aware of the large net fund short position that already exists in corn and are cautious with any new short positions. Funds have been bigger traders (than expected) heading to the holiday weekend. A mixed close is expected by AgResource.
** CBOT brokers estimate that funds have bought 5,500 contracts of wheat and 9,000 contracts of corn, while selling 5,100 contracts of soybeans. In soy products, funds have sold 2,000 contacts of soymeal and 3,000 contracts of soyoil. The soyoil market has taken back nearly a large share of its April gain as the US Dept of Commerce has yet to rule on duties to apply on Argentine and Indonesian biodiesel. Those duty announces could be coming in June.
** Traders expect some pre-weekend hedge pressure could be seen in KC wheat as the harvest starts to gain speed across OK/TX. The S Kansas wheat harvest will start in 10-14 days weather permitting. Yield and protein data is showing some improvement as the harvest pushes northward.
** Midday GFS Weather Update: The GFS weather model at midday maintains a wetter outlook with unwanted rains for the Southern parts of the Midwest and Plains regions. The 10 day outlook has another 2-4” of precipitation falling across the entire state of Missouri and the Southern 3rd of Illinois, areas of the Cornbelt that are already struggling from too much spring rainfall. Crops farther north will benefit from more normal rainfall, and producers that have not yet wrapped up the 2017 planting season will have chance to wind things down.
** AgResource Market Comment: Soybeans have slipped to new lows in thin volume, as most of the world’s cash market has gone home for an early start to the long holiday, while the grain market has found support on spreads. Our view is that lasting directional trends (up or down) are unlikely until 2017 planting is completed and more is known about the summer weather pattern.