Moisture Relief Due in E Midwest; Plains/SW Midwest Hot & Dry: The EU & GFS models are in better agreement, though the GFS remains the wettest/coolest of the major forecasts in the 6-15 day period. Needed rainfall will impact the Central & Eastern Midwest over the next 4-5 days, and the pattern thereafter has indeed trended wetter/cooler east of the MS River during the second half of June. However, continued warmth/dryness lies in the offing indefinitely across the Plains and the W Corn Belt.
The graphic attached shows the weekly change in US vegetation health through June 10th, which underscores just how welcomed coming rain in the Midwest will be! A high pressure Ridge currently aloft the S and E US will retrograde westward due to a strong frontal system in the next 24-36 hours. Lite but steady precip, and cooler temps, will develop thereafter across the N and E Midwest. the best chance for rain in the N Plains is in the next 36 hours.
Over the weekend the EU model added precip and coverage to the late week rain event, and additional follow up showers are likely across the E Midwest on the weekend and early next week. The EU’s 7-day precip forecast is below, and indeed dryness concerns will be briefly eased across IA, MN, IN & OH.
The models are also in broad agreement on drier conditions returning to the W Midwest – and continuing across the Plains into June 28. The N Plains drought will be expanding south and eastward. Temps in the 90s will cause evaporation rates to soar, and so crop stress remains. The EU model is also warmer than the Central US mid/late next week. Recall in 2016 the Plains were spared from drought via much above normal precip in; KS, NE and the Dakotas in July, and whether this pattern is repeated in 2017 is critical.
However, our confidence is low in any forecast beyond the next 7 days amid big run to run changes.