Pictured: Climate Impact Company precipitation anomaly forecasts for July through September.
Download the complete Climate Impact Company July, August and September 2017 U.S. climate forecasts
In a remarkable set of observations nearly every global model initializing SSTA conditions used to correlate with climate prediction are missing key factors. Most important is the recognition and likely continued influence on U.S. summer climate by cool pools of water in the northern Pacific and north-central North Atlantic. ENSO is neutral yet some models are still forecasting vigorous El Nino. The ENSO, PDO and AMO regimes are misleading making analog years tough to assemble. Therefore the climate forecast is based on the most reliable predictors available: Persistence (volatility of early warm season climate), the MJO (likely to cause increased risk of tropical cyclone activity/intensity) and soil moisture trends (identifying areas of anomalous heat risk when the subtropical ridge is present.
