Pictured: The Climate Impact Company week 2-4 precipitation anomaly forecast indicates dryness in the western Plains next week, most of the Great Plains in early July toward mid-July.
One of the more intriguing reflections of the upper atmosphere on the oceanic sea surface temperature anomaly pattern is an evolving cool pool of water east of New England. This cool pool is intensifying. Meanwhile a cool pool of water rests north-northeast of Hawaii in the North Pacific. There’s a tendency for the upper air flow to trough across these large areas of cooler than normal water. In-between the semi-permanent trough(s) high pressure ridging is present. That leaves the western half of the U.S. most susceptible to high pressure ridging for mid-summer. The beginnings of that ridge is on full display this week as the Southwest U.S. and California roar to 110-120 degrees. The Pacific trough pattern edges eastward and pushes the ridge albeit weaker toward the Central U.S. later this month causing a hotter/drier pattern into the western Plains. The cool SSTA east of New England keeps the Northeast in a showery/temperate pattern, the back edge of the wet weather can effect the Midwest. So…dryness into the Great Plains the first half of July but the Midwest avoids that dryness.
Pictured: Last week’s temperature anomalies and precipitation amount across the U.S.