Download The Climate Impact Company Medium-range Forecast
Pictured: The GFS OP 6-10/11-15 day forecast percent of normal rainfall across the U.S. (and dryness in the Great Plains).
Forecast models shift the recent California/Southwest U.S. heat wave northward into the Northwest U.S. expanding to the drought zone across the northern Plains through the first half of July (and possibly longer). In this pattern the Northwest and North-Central U.S. to central Plains is drier than normal. In the extended-range the trend is a more widespread dryness in the Great Plains. Coupled with anomalous warmth which could be stronger than indicated based on the feedback process of dry soils to the upper atmosphere the northern Plains drought is now more likely to expand southward during mid-summer. The Midwest has a tendency to hang onto the thunderstorm patternĀ suppressing heat risk.
Pictured: The Climate Impact Company 6-10/11-15 day forecast temperature anomalies.