GFS Cooler in Midwest beyond July 20; Otherwise No Change to Outlook: The GFS at midday intensified a Ridge/Trough pattern, which will work to bring cooler – but still dry – air into the heart of the Midwest in the 12-15 day period. The EU model did not confirm this, however, and in the meantime ongoing warmth and dryness will dominate North America over the next 10 days. The projected 7-day change in soil moisture is at left. Abnormal dryness & drought will expand south and east in the next 7-10 days. High temps today again reached into the mid/upper 90s in OK and KS.
Moderate showers will ride along the northern edge of a high pressure Ridge Sun-Tues, triggering cumulative rainfall of 1-2” across E IA, WI, IL, IN, OH and MI. The remainder of the Central US will continue hot & dry. This high pressure Ridge inches into the W Midwest next late next week, thereby shutting off Central US moisture entirely. Temps in the 6-10 day period will be some 5-10 degrees above normal, and highs in the 90s will push eastward into MO and IA.
There are signs of a sort of pattern change during the last week of the month. High pressure will stay anchored aloft the W Plains (as will heat and dryness), but cooler air will begin to impact the N Plains and E Midwest. Should the GFS prove correct, highs in the extended period will be more comfortable, ranging in the upper 70s & 80s, but still very little moisture is offered to the US Ag Belt through the next two weeks. The GFS’s 11-15 day precip forecast is at left, and it’s likely that July 1-22 moisture will exist at just 20-60% of normal across the Western Corn Belt – pockets of KS, MO, NE and IA will see precip at just 20-30% of normal. This evening’s outlook implies lower crop ratings, not higher. A pattern change is desired, and rather quickly as 20-22% of the corn crop should reach the silking stage over the weekend.