Download the Climate Impact Company Madden Julian Oscillation Outlook
Pictured: Depiction of the MJO regime the past 2 weeks (orange) and differing 2-week forecasts offered by the GFS and ECM models.
During the past 2 weeks the MJO has been identified as weak by operational models. However, the weak signature is most likely due to the presence of 2 centers of tropical convection, one in the eastern equatorial Pacific and most prominently across the eastern half of the Indian Ocean. The MJO presence in the Indian Ocean persisting for nearly one month has lead to flash flooding across many parts of Southeast Asia including China and more recently Japan plus igniting a wet Indian Monsoon. Will this pattern continue?
The GFS forecast says yes while the ECM (model) is more progressive shifting the MJO to the West Pacific. Both models agree that the MJO will strengthen the next 10 days. To determine which model is most correct we review skill scores of operational models the past 30 days which conclude the GFS ensemble/biased correction (model) has consistently scored best for the day 1-5, 6-10 and 11-15 periods.
Pictured: Skill scores of all operational models provided by CWG during the past 30 days favors the GFS ENS BC model as most skillful.
The GFS ENS BC day 1-7/8-14 temperature anomaly forecasts across the U.S. (please see attached report) favor anomalous heat continuing in the West/Northwest/North-Central U.S. pulsing eastward the next week or so and maintaining persistence in the West/Northwest States in the 8-14 day period. The model does not provide a precipitation anomaly forecast but favored is a wetter pattern in the 4 Corners to Texas region days 1-7 with Midwest U.S. thunderstorms followed by more Southwest/Texas thunderstorms days 8-14 while the Midwest thunderstorm activity shifts to the Appalachians.
The bottom line? The Great Plains drought expansion is on. But the expansion is toward the central Plains rather than eastward across the core of the Corn/Soybean crop areas of the Midwest. In Southeast Asia the wet pattern continues although China may turn drier/hotter days 8-14.
