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Pictured: The 00Z GFS day 1-5/day 6-10/day 11-15 percent of normal rainfall forecast.
The GFS OP forecast is generally the least reliable of the operational models. However, the character of the outlooks issued overnight is likely correct. Short-term heat crashes tomorrow in the Midwest as severe thunderstorms develop and may linger into late week. Dryness continues across South Dakota into Iowa therefore dry zones turn drier. In the 6-10 day period the northern Plains are hot and the GFS OP indicates essentially no rain for the period. Dryness and attendant heat will force dry-to-drought conditions to widen. In the 11-15 day period the dryness remains intense across the central Plains while thunderstorms return to the Midwest. More hot weather in the 11-15 day period. The North-Central drought is attempting to expand especially southward with increased risk (but not a sure bet) toward the core of soybeans and corn areas.
Pictured: The Climate Impact Company day 6-10/day 11-15 temperature anomaly outlook.
