Forecasts Warmer Again; Heat Reaches Midwest Next Week: The major forecasting models are no longer as cool in the extended period, and through the next 10 days substantial declines in soil moisture are forecast across some 70-80% of the US Corn Belt. A high pressure Ridge intensifies and expands into the Midwest early next week. Maximum temps next Wednesday are at left, and notice that highs in the upper 90s will inch into IA, MO and IL. ARC’s work maintains that a major pattern shift is needed to keep US corn yield potential at 168 or better.
Isolated heavy rainfall worth .50-1.50” will impact MN, WI and pockets of IA next Tues-Thurs, but otherwise the Central US will be void of meaningful precip through the next 10 days. Heat returns to the Central Plains on the weekend, and peaks in intensity and coverage next Wed-Sat.
Thereafter, this high pressure Ridge is likely to retrograde westward, and its mean position will return to the W/SW US. Still, the jet stream will be aligned a bit too far north and east to provide any moisture relief to the Plains, while normal/above normal temps persist across the KS, NE and the Dakotas into the final days of July. The EU ensemble, which remains the most accurate in the 11-15 day period, forecasts only a minor uptick in Midwest precip beyond July 23rd, ongoing dryness across the Plains, and maintains normal/above normal temps everywhere.
Expanding drought across the Central and Northern Plains has been well documented, but even critical areas of the W Midwest will see much below normal precip in July. Note that IA rainfall below 3.0” very rarely produces a corn yield above trend, which in 2017 rests at 185 Bu/Acre, vs. 203 last year.