Climate Impact Company Global Agriculture Sunday Report
Issued: Sunday, July 16, 2017
15-day outlooks/comments for all crop areas
United States: Hot period for soybeans and corn late week/weekend.
The (market) issues are expanding drought now affecting the Dakotas and into Nebraska plus Iowa and indications of extreme heat. Severe thunderstorms will dump heavy rain over a somewhat confined area of northwest Iowa (1-3 in.) with lesser amounts in southwest South Dakota to northeast Iowa and northern Illinois this week. The ECM forecast model indicates less rain than the GFS. Texas to the Missouri Valley and into the southern Ohio Valley is dry the next 5 days. Models disagree on heavy rains from thunderstorm activity in the 6-10 day period with the GFS showing Iowa to Indiana soaking wet while the ECM is farther south. But widening drought conditions are marginalized by this thunderstorm risk. The 11-15 day period looks drier again as wet weather shifts to the Southeast States. The first signs of extreme heat appear in Illinois on Thursday when temperatures soar into the upper 90’s. The northern Missouri Valley and southern Ohio Valley are hot on Friday. Significant heat affects the Ohio and Tennessee Valley next weekend. Latest indications are a cold front suppresses the heat wave July 25th. The bottom line: Mid-summer hot event ahead but enough thunderstorm activity to defeat drought expansion in the heart of soybeans and corn.
Europe: Southern Europe drought continues (except Greece)
The southern Europe drought centered on Italy remains harsh this week. However, an upper trough brings excessive rainfall, up to 4 in. across Greece. The lack of rain this week extends to Ukraine. Models vary in the 6-10 day period on whether the pattern is more progressive (or not). The European model maintains dryness across Southern Europe and is drier in Greece). Given southern European drought a compelling reason is needed to produce significant rains and that evidence is not present. U.K. to Norway/Sweden is wet in the 6-10 day period. In the 11-15 day period harsh dryness in Portugal continues and also from southern Europe to Ukraine. Northern Europe is showery. The persistent cool trough in Western Russia is present this week while southwest/central Europe is warmer than normal. There is potential for excessive heat in east/southeast Europe next week and the heat extends to Ukraine. In the 11-15 day period anomalous heat could be excessive southeast Europe, Ukraine and Turkey while Western Europe is temperate. Bottom line: Southern Europe drought continues. Eastward expansion is trying.
Russia: Southern Europe drought spreading east to Black Sea region
West to west-central Russia remains cool and showery this week although dry in Ukraine. The showery/cool trough remains in-place across northwest Russ to west-central Russia in the 6-10 day period. Showers affect the cool zone. However, south of the cool zone a sharp transition to dry and potentially hot weather affects Ukraine and the Black Sea region. In the 11-15 day period models vary but are attempting to spread the southern Europe drought to the Black Sea region and certainly Ukraine.
China: Excessive heat/dryness central to eastern China in the medium-range
Northern to central China is generally very dry this week with attendant anomalous heat. Northern China drought continues to worsen. Far southeast China is wetter than normal the next 5 days. In the 6-10 day period thunderstorms will bring some beneficial rains to the northern China crop areas but they are the hit and miss variety. The central and east-central heat will be excessive in the 6-10 day period and all models are in agreement. A similar pattern in the 11-15 day period with northern China in a thunderstorm pattern while central and eastern China observe excessive heat and dryness.
India: Super wet pattern west and north while southeast dryness expands
The MJO pattern is locked in the Indian Ocean and providing periods of excessive rains across India. In the day 1-5 period most of India is wetter than normal except southeast portions. The west coast and northwest India are hit hard by cooling heavy monsoon rains this week. In the 6-10 day period the southeast India dryness this week expands while western to northeastern India remains wet. The 11-15 day period is drier than normal across southern India while northwest and north locations stay in a thunderstorm pattern due to residual moisture. Northern India is unusually cool at times the next 2 weeks while anomalous heat steadily increases far south/southeast sections.
Australia: Worsening drought
Most operational models agree that most of the continent is drier than normal with no rain in many zones the next 15 days. Anomalous warmth is strongest the eastern one half to two thirds of the continent. Worsening drought is the bottom line.
South America: Brazilian drought strengthens, Argentina is chilly this week
Argentina and Brazil receive little of no rain the next 5 days. In the 6-10 day period northeast Australia receives some rainfall otherwise widespread dryness continues. There is a chance of significant rain in northern Argentina in the 11-15 day period while Brazil stays dry. An exceptionally cool pattern is forecast for Argentina this week. The chill misses Brazilian coffee. A warm reversal is indicted in the 6-10 day period. Bottom line? Brazilian drought continues.
