** AgResource Pre Opening Sunday Market Calls: Soybeans 1-4 cents higher, corn 1-2 cents higher with wheat called 1-3 cents higher.
** Sunday Weather & Market Comment Discussion: Opening week CBOT calls are slightly higher as the Central US weather forecast is warmer/drier than what was offered last Friday. However, the extended forecast offers some moderation in temperatures, but still not much rain for the Plains or the SW Midwest and Delta. Thus, it’s a difficult opening week call with funds securing their largest weekly amount of soybeans on record through Tuesday and holding a record net long position in KC wheat. We doubt that it is a gap-and-go kind of start the week that has been enjoyed in recent weeks.
The chart below reflects the broad area of below normal rainfall that started on July 1st. ARC looks for a 1-2% decline in US corn/soy GD/EX conditions and a 2% drop in spring wheat ratings on Monday. Extreme heat was felt again this weekend across the Plains and W Midwest farmers explaining that their crops are showing the impact of dryness.
** July 1-30th Rainfall as % of Normal:
The big question for the CBOT is whether the hot/drier than desired West Central US weather forecast can push funds into a net long position? Funds have covered their net short corn and soybean positions, but they may not yet be ready to go long without confirmation of reduced US corn/soybean yields.
** Central US Weather Pattern Discussion; Limited rain fell across the Plains and the Midwest on the weekend. The GFS & EU forecast models are in good agreement to start the week. An amplified high pressure Ridge forms in a position from Kansas into S Illinois in the last half of this week. This Ridge will fan some hot temps with highs ranging from the upper 80’s to lower 100’s. Low temps will range from the lower 70’s to 80’s which is too warm for corn to properly respirate. The Ridge shifts to the SE Midwest and E Delta before early next week before shifting back to the W Plains in early August. There is no indication of a Central US pattern change into August 5th. The Ridge will shift back and forth from the Intermountain West and the C Midwest. The EU model rainfall map reflects that mostly below normal totals will continue fall with limited rainfall in the N and C Plains with the best rain chances across the Lake States. Some areas will see enough rain while others suffer. It’s a mixed outlook for rains.