Except for spring wheat, which rallied another 14 cents, wheat futures across the world ended slightly lower. There’s just not a lot of fresh news, and cash markets in the Black Sea are a bit weaker today as harvest advances. Still, a new 12-month high in the euro sent EU cash markets to modest gains, and Aussie replacement costs continue to surge amid intensifying drought in Western and South Australia.
Egypt secured 300,000 MTs of wheat from Russia, Romania and France at an average fob price of $204.40/MT, up fractionally from its purchase earlier this month, and actually is the highest in several years. As this often sets the world price, recent Egyptian validates elevated world cash prices.
Australia’s crop is still in its vegetative stage, but crop-critical weather does lie on the horizon. Unfortunately, our climate work suggests that, despite the lack of El Nino, the most probable trend there is continued dryness through August.
Sustained rallies require balance sheet changes, but we’re not anxious to sell breaks.
