Download The Climate Impact Company Daily Feature: The NOAA Long-lead Forecast
Pictured: The NOAA 3-month temperature and precipitation probability forecast and seasonal drought outlook is indicated.
Every 3rd Thursday of the month NOAA issues their probability climate forecasts which extend to 1 year. The outlooks are issued about 10 days prior to the first of next month when the forecast period begins which is why NOAA calls their product the “long-lead” forecast. Traditionally, these climate outlooks are heavily biased by ENSO. However, ENSO is neutral now so forecast confidence is below average. NOAA used 2 primary models to compute their outlook…NMME and CFS V2. The approach is heavily weighted toward the global sea surface temperature anomaly pattern and influence on climate.
The outlook for AUG/SEP/OCT is warmer than normal (orange color) for the entire U.S. The outlook is made in terms of probability. As an example the “40” line runs through Chicago which means 40% chance of above normal while the other 2 possibilities (normal or below normal) are split evenly at 30% chance. The precipitation outlook identifies wet zones across the Southwest and Texas. Implied is above normal risk of tropical cyclone activity into Texas. Notice the “EC” over the northern Plains and Northeast U.S. EC means equal chances or 33% chance of above, below or normal rainfall. Essentially, the model has no skill in this zone.
The drought outlook indicates erosion of the widening mid-summer drought zone in the Great Plains. The forecast is dependent on the wet monsoon pushes clouds/showers into the Central U.S. to defeat drought expansion. If the wet monsoon fails the Central U.S. dry trend in-place now will rapidly expand. Climate Impact Company prefers the drier scenario.