Download The Climate Impact Company Global Soil Moisture Trend & Forecast Report
Pictured: Global soil moisture 3-month forecast trend is indicated.
The soil moisture trend forecast valid through the next 3 months is based on Climate Impact Company analogs, probability forecasts from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society and regional SSTA regimes.
In North America forecast confidence is above average that the western U.S. will trend drier once the (wet) monsoon season has subsided. In the Great Plains and most of the East U.S. the precipitation forecast does not favor a strong soil moisture change. The northern U.S. into southern Canada trends wetter. An above average confidence forecast is the wetter trend in the Caribbean Islands and southeast Mexico to northern Central America. Tropical cyclone activity drives the wetter Caribbean forecast while a persistent ridge dries out the West.
In Europe there is expected wet westerly flow as the persistent ridge pattern bringing summer drought collapses and a showery regime develops for autumn. The southern Europe drought continues and a drier pattern is expected east of the Black Sea. In Russia the wet pattern across western areas continues while a recent dry trend central and eastern Russia reverses wetter (again).
Southeast Asia, western Indonesia and Australia are forecast to trend drier as the far western equatorial Pacific SSTA is cooler. Vietnam remains wet anticipating tropical cyclone activity. India remains dry southwest sections, wet n western sections and changeable eastern sections. The Indian Monsoon is controlled by the presence of the Madden Julian oscillation.
West Africa trends wetter implying above normal risk of stronger than normal tropical waves potentially leading to tropical North Atlantic hurricanes. South-central Africa is drier and drought conditions intensify.
In South America dryness dominates the northern half of the continent while a wet signature persists for much of Argentina.