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Pictured: Afternoon satellite view of the North Atlantic tropics identifies Category 3 Major Hurricane Irma in the central North Atlantic tropics and two tropical disturbances, one in the Bay of Campeche and another in the outer North Atlantic tropics.
Irma is an impressive major hurricane in the central North Atlantic tropics forecast to move westward the next 5 days to the north-central Cuba coast in 5 days. The 6-10 day forecast is uncertain now showing a north turn by Irma through Florida and into the Southeast U.S. The forecast trend each day has been farther westward and risk of another major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico is increasing. There is also a tropical disturbance developing in the Bay of Campeche likely to stay quasi-stationary or back southwestward into Mexico later this week. Another tropical disturbance in the outer North Atlantic tropics is forecast to become a tropical cyclone in 3-5 days tracking to the north of Puerto Rico.
The Climate Impact Company 6-10 and 11-15 day U.S. precipitation anomaly forecasts are indicated.
In the short-term a strong cold front pushes south and east triggering severe thunderstorms in the Ohio Valley today nd Interior Northeast tomorrow. The front stalls on the East Coast Thursday as rain lingers. To the west the Great Plains is mostly dry and still on the cool side. The impacts of Irma shape the medium-range forecast. Indicated is more dry weather and trending warmer in the 6-10 day period across the Great Plains. Unclear is how far inland the remains of Irma will track. The 11-15 day period is very uncertain. Favored is more anomalous warmth with the wet regime reversing much drier in the Southern States.