AgResource Daily Farm Marketing Advice for Friday: 1/ No new advice.
6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: November soybeans are up 2.25 cents at $9.71, Dec corn is up 1.25 cents at $3.565 while Dec Chi wheat is up 1.75 cents at $4.39.
Good Morning! It was another uneventful overnight session, with just 7,000 contracts of Dec corn and 14,000 contracts of Nov beans changing hands, and macro markets remain broadly supportive. The US dollar is yet again weaker, trading at 91.1 points, down a hefty 13% from this summer’s high. Currencies in Brazil, Australia and Canada are all higher, and as we’ve mentioned this week currency changes could be rather important longer term should current trends persist. Crude is near unchanged. DOW futures are down 75 points. On the week, Dec corn is up a penny, CME wheat is unchanged and Nov beans are up 22 cents.
This afternoon’s CFTC report is expected to feature only minor changes to funds’ net positions. ARC estimates that as of Tuesday managed funds were short a net 60,000 contracts of corn, 65,000 contracts of wheat and 10,000 contracts of beans. Enthusiasm for new positioning has been limited ahead of harvest, with the market unable to fine-tune yield beyond estimates that have been in place for months (164-168 corn; 47-49 beans). It’s now left to analyze actual combine data, which amid slight delays in development won’t be available to late Sep/early Oct.
Hurricane Irma’s path has been shifted slightly westward again, with much of Florida now in the crosshairs in the next 72 hours. Hurricane warnings are now in effect for much of the southern half of the state. Beyond the weekend, the remnants of the storm look to impact GA and SC, where rainfall is now pegged upwards of 7-8”. Lesser totals, ranging from 1-2”, will fall in TN and KY, but there’s still no indication that needed rainfall will reach into the E Midwest, where 30-day precip rests at just 10-50% of normal in sizeable portions of IL & IN.
The Central US forecast is otherwise little changed over the next 10 days. Scattered showers have been added to the Dakotas, MN and far NW IA Sep 17-18, but meaningful rainfall is absent. Temps are still expected to warm noticeably beginning early next week, and the climate pattern thereafter includes sustained warmth into October. The Central US looks to avoid frost/freeze issues, but is in need of a finishing rain event.
Algeria this AM has secured 250,000 MTs of durum at $285-295/MT, which compares to a Tunisian purchase of durum in early summer at $259/MT. Durum and very high protein milling wheat will command steep premiums longer term.
Argentine soybeans are no longer offered beyond the next 30 days or so, which along with Brazilian fob premiums of $.85-.90 (vs. US Gulf premiums of $.55-.65) will assure US soybean exports stay robust. China still has fall needs to cover and will be active on breaks.
There’s not much other news available, and with a host of changes coming to US balance sheets (yield, exports, & potentially biofuel) many will remain on the sidelines until next week’s WASDE release. Longer term, ARC maintains a neutral outlook, and we await clarity on yield before making new sales.