** AgResource Daily Cattle Analysis: Cattle futures closed higher last week, and a firm outlook is offered for early trade at the start of this week. Early week selling found good demand on ideas that the cattle market has finally reached a delayed seasonal low. Cash cattle trade held until late in the week with sales quoted around steady for the week at $105. The beef market finally showed indications of stabilizing, with the choice cutout value ending the week $.53 higher, while select was down $.68. The break from the June high has been a record and it’s likely that a short term bottom is in place (despite the more bearish seasonal outlook). Estimated slaughter margins for last week were at $160/head near unchanged from last week, but the best for early September in more than 3 decades.
December cattle traded to, but closed above it’s 50 day moving average on Friday and the next target rests at the 100 day moving average near $115. Our view stays bearish on this rally as we expect that record large 4th quarter beef and pork production will weigh on livestock prices into late in the year. 
** US Weather Pattern Discussion: The EU & GFS models are in decent agreement that a change lies ahead for the North American weather pattern. These climate changes are often sparked by major tropical storms such as Hurricane Irma and the release of their energy. Better rain chances are offered for the Central US
Hurricane Irma came as ashore with much media fury, but its winds and storm surge where thankfully not up to the fears that were seeded late last week. Irma was still a dangerous storm, but its fast movement to the north has reduced crop and structural damage. Irma is quickly falling apart and the big concern going forward will be the heavy rains that fall across GA, AL and SC! The remains of Irma will provide some needed rains for; TN, KY and S OH.
A Trough will be digging southward into the PNW with a Ridge to the east producing a broad reversal of the summer weather pattern – or a Trough/ Ridge. This pattern will allow for improved rains through the Plains and the Midwest with time. There is no evidence of a frost/freeze risk for the Midwest for another 2 weeks. After Sept 30th, the impact on any frost will be modest as the harvest starts.
** North American Rainfall Forecast Next 10 Days:
