** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: November soybeans are down 2.50 cents at $9.575, Dec corn is down 2.50 cents at $3.55 while Dec Chi wheat is down 1.00 cent at $4.3375.
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! CBOT values were mostly weaker overnight with the USDA September Crop Report looming at 11:00 AM CDT. The average September crop estimate is for a US 2017 corn yield of 167.8 BPA (down 1.7 BPA) and a soybean yield of 48.7 BPA (down .7 BPA) from August. The expectation for lower yields has traders concerned that this morning’s September report might be a tad bearish with harvest dead ahead.
The volume of trade overnight has been moderate with just over 8,000 contracts of December corn, just over 10,000 contracts of November soybeans, and just over 4,000 contracts of December Chi wheat changing hands.
Monday’s CBOT open interest increased 9,337 contracts in corn, 5,227 contracts in soybeans, and 26 contracts in wheat. End users continue to add to their forward coverage on CBOT weakness.
The NASS weekly crop condition and progress report showed steady conditions in corn at 61% GD/EX with 21% of the crop mature and 5% harvested. US soybean condition ratings fell 1% to 60% GD/EX with 22% of the crop dropping leaves. No US soybean harvest has been reported, while 95% of the spring wheat crop is completed. 5% of the 2018 US winter wheat crop is now planted.
Egypt rejected a cargo of French wheat via its finding of poppy seeds – the 2nd rejection of an EU wheat cargo. A Romanian cargo was rejected last month for the same weed seed. The Egyptian Quarantine Dept continues to look for means to increase its influence in Egyptian wheat imports after last year’s ergot dispute was largely put to rest.
Tropical depression Irma is now producing rains across the Eastern Delta with wind speeds in decline. Rain totals will range today from 1-3.50”, but the remains of Irma will be exhausted by late Wednesday. Irma will not produce the .5-2.00” E Midwest rains that producer’s desire to help parched crops.
Hurricane Jose will circle in the Atlantic for a few more days before making a close call on the Carolina shoreline early next week before pushing north into the Atlantic. A US coastline landfall is still possible and should be monitored closely.
Mostly dry weather will persist across the Midwest for another 3-4 days with the rain chances increasing in the N Plains and W Midwest by late week. The forecast maintains a more active Central US rainfall pattern thereafter with snows possible in the N Rockies. No Midwest frost risk is foreseen.
The French Farm Ministry raised their estimate of this year’s wheat harvest to 37.8 MMTs, up 1 MMTs from August, and the 3rd largest French wheat crop in history. Their rapeseed crop was increased to 5.5 MMTs, the largest since 2009
Malaysian palmoil futures were able to shake off early weakness and close higher with the most active December futures gaining 28 ringgits to close at 2,830 RM/MT. However, India’s vegoil imports fell 88% in August to 1.4 MMTs.
The Sept USDA crop report looms. We doubt that it’s going to end the debate on 2017 US corn/soybean yields. We would not buy a CBOT rally or sell a break. Good Luck with the USDA report this morning.
