** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: November soybeans are up 4.50 cents at $9.55, Dec corn is up .50 of a cent at $3.52 while Dec Chi wheat is up 2.75 cents at $4.4475.
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! Improved volume and mixed trading has been the CBOT feature overnight. Corn, soybean and wheat futures have traded either side of unchanged with wheat/soy futures uncovering demand on tightening US soyoil stocks, doubt over record large US soybean pod weights, and a 1.5 MMTs fall in 2017/18 world wheat end stocks. The corn market has lagged as South American corn exports continue to ramp up and steal “export thunder” from the US.
Overnight CBOT trading volume has exceeded 25,000 contracts of November soybeans, and over 15,000 contracts of December corn and 9,500 contracts of December Chi wheat. This overnight volume is the best in weeks.
Preliminary CBOT open interest reflects a 9,801 contract gain in corn, 13,677 contract gain in soybeans, and 2,204 bump in Chi wheat.
Deliveries against Sept futures on the last day of trade were; 118 contracts of soymeal, 340 contracts of soyoil, 375 contracts of corn, and 18 contracts of Chi and 35 contracts of KC wheat. No soybeans or oats were tendered.
September FSA Farm Program participation data offered little fresh input from August. US farmers enrolled 87.2 Mil acres of corn, 88.6 Mil acres of soybeans, and 43.1 Mil acres of wheat. All were marginally higher from August. Prevent plant acres were 954,000 acres of corn, 432,944 acres of soybeans, and 616,085 acres of wheat. Total US all crop prevent plant acres were 2.568 Mil acres. ARC will detail the history of FSA Farm Program participation data & its impact on NASS acreage estimates in our PM report this evening.
China announced that it will be pushing for a gasoline ethanol blend rate of 10% by 2020 to combat smog in their larger metropolitan areas. No exact mandates were announced since provinces usually set those standards, but China, the world’s 3rd largest ethanol producer is ramping up production to help its air quality and get rid of a mountain of aging corn supply.
Mostly dry weather will persist across the Midwest for another 2-3 days with the rain chances increasing in the N Plains and W Midwest by the weekend and early next week. There is not a lot of moisture for the E Midwest with crop “die down” accelerating. There is no evidence of a frost/freeze into September 28th, and any crop damage from a cold weather event is in fast retreat.
South American weather gains importance going forward with soybean seeding underway across N Brazil and wet weather causing corn/soy planting concern in Argentina. Unfortunately, there is no evidence of any moisture for Brazilian crop areas north of RGDS, with dryness becoming a worry. Argentina will see more unwanted heavy rains in the 7-15 day period with totals of 1-3.00”.
NASS has had its say on US corn/soybean yields based on producer surveys and ear/pod counts. A new phase in the market is approaching as traders listen to the combine – actual yield data. Some very early harvest data is coming in and it does not appear to back up lofty NASS yield forecasts. However, it’s too early to suggest a US yield trend. Based on record large US export demand and falling soyoil stocks, its soybeans that have the best CBOT rally chance.
** EU Model 10 Day South American Rainfall Forecast:
