** AgResource Daily Cattle Analysis: Cattle futures closed lower on Tuesday and a steady/weaker outlook is offered for early trade this morning. After a weaker start to the day, December cattle found resistance against the 50 day moving average and continued lower into late in the day in technical trade. Cash cattle markets went untraded through Tuesday with no bids or offers quoted. Boxed beef cutout values were down $.77 on choice and up $.48 on select, putting the choice/select spread at a rare select premium of $.07.
In the September WASDE report, the USDA slightly lowered both 3rd and 4th quarter beef production, noting slower than expected marketings through the 3rd quarter. However 4th quarter production is still projected to be record large, and price forecasts were also reduced into the end of the year. The 4th quarter price forecast was cut by $3 to $107-113. It’s early 2018 that has the best chance at a price recovery. The USDA projects a very modest increase in production, with an average steer price forecast of $110-120, though 2nd quarter production is forecast at 107% of 2017 which would be at a 10 year high.
Our view stays bearish on rallies as we expect that record large 4th quarter beef and pork production will weigh on livestock prices into yearend. 
** US Weather Pattern Discussion: The EU & GFS models are in agreement that a change lies ahead for the North American weather pattern next week. A Trough/ Ridge pattern across North America will lead to increased rainfall chances across the Plains and Midwest with time. This rain will come too late to help many Midwest crops, but it will start a process of soil moisture restoration for winter wheat. The rain could also cause harvest delays, but that will be judged later in September. The best rain chances start across the N Plains.
The remains of Irma will provide some additional lite rain for TN, KY and the far southern portions of OH/IN for another 18 hours. A Trough is digging southward into the PNW with a Ridge to the east producing a broad reversal of the summer weather pattern – or a Trough/ Ridge. This pattern will allow for improved rains through the Plains and the Midwest beyond September 19th. There is no evidence of a frost/freeze risk for the Midwest for another 2 weeks. After Sept 30th, the impact on any frost will be modest as the harvest gains momentum.
Above normal temps will persist into the weekend, with cooler readings from west to east next week. The recent heat continues to push crop maturity.
** Central US 10 Day Rainfall Forecast:
