Central US Forecast: Wet 4-10 Day Period; Still No Frost: The US forecast is little changed from prior runs, and a noticeable pattern shift is due late this weekend. Prolonged dryness will finally end, and a series of lite but continuous showers is offered to the Plains and Midwest Sep 18-25. Unseasonable warmth returns next week.
Very late planted beans will benefit slightly from upcoming moisture, but otherwise late September’s pattern shift will do little to affect US corn & soybean supply – and notice that drought has expanded considerably in the last week. Another few days of complete dryness and near normal temps lie in the offing. Beginning Sun/Mon a broad Trough/Ridge upper air flow develops, which will push the flow of moisture into the E Plains and W Midwest into late month. Rather than one meaningful event occuring, near daily showers will be featured during much of next week, and cumulative rainfall is estimated at .50-3.00”, favoring E KS, E NE, IA, MN and WI. Overnight low temps into Sep 30th will range in the 50s & 60s.
Argentine Dryness to be Only Temporary: The 6-15 day forecast in Argentina has trended wetter, and so coming drier weather, which is needed, will be rather brief. Still no meaningful precip is forecast in Brazil outside of RGDS in the far South of the country. 14-day precip is below.
South American weather will gain importance quickly in the next 30 days, and already corn seeding delays are apparent in Argentina. Rainfall of 2-6” has fallen there so far in September. Dryness prevails into early next week, but heavy showers return to Buenos Aires, La Pampa and parts of Cordoba (which combine for 70% of Argentina’s corn/bean production) Sep 21-30. ARC doubts Argentine corn planting progress will exceed 8-10% by late Sep, while the crop was 22% seeded on Sep 29 a year ago. Brazilian soy planting has just started, but of course won’t accelerate until seasonal rains move northwards – which so far is not in the two-week outlook. Note also that Brazil will be abnormally hot in late Sep, with high temps in upper 90s and 100s.