** AgResource Pre Opening Sunday Market Calls: Soybeans 1 cent lower to 2 cents higher, corn steady to 1 cent higher with wheat called 1-3 cents higher.
** Sunday Weather & Market Comment Discussion: Opening week calls are mixed to firm on continued dry Brazilian weather forecasts, disappointing early Midwest yield reports and the expectation of improved Chinese demand for US soybeans at the start of the week. Traders will closely follow combine results.
Managed funds through the week ending Tuesday were short a net 119,000 contracts of corn, 84,000 contracts of wheat and 4,400 contracts of beans. Managed money was short 32,000 contracts of soymeal and long 100,000 contracts of soyoil, suggesting that the oil share trade is crowded.
**September US Percentage of Normal Rainfall** With just 13 days remaining in September (using the EU model forecast), September is going to follow on the heels of June-July-August as being drier than normal for an estimated 70% of the Midwest. Crops in the eastern half of IA, and IL/IN/OH appear to be the most impacted with corn/soy prematurely dying with ear drop commonplace. US wheat futures will firm amid another 10-14 days of below normal rain for key wheat areas of Australia and a weekend frost/freeze in NSW. The ‘17 Aussie wheat crop looks to be sliding under 20 MMTs, down from 33.5 MMTs in 2016.
** September Percent of Normal Rainfall:
** Central US Weather Pattern Discussion: The GFS & EU are in fair agreement. Three hurricanes in the Atlantic are causing disparity in the North American weather forecast with the often more correct EU model suggesting that Jose will pass closely to US East Coast, while Maria follows a path similar to Irma’s. Maria could make landfall in the Carolina’s around Sept 26-27th.
As the EU rainfall map below depicts, the best rain chances in the next 10 days will be across the Plains and the far W Midwest. Several storm systems look to produce .5-3.00” of rain which will be ideal ahead of winter wheat seeding. The E Midwest will be short changed on the rain will most totals ranging from .25-1.00”. This is not the finish that E Midwest crops desired.
Midwest Temps will average 6-9 degrees above normal this week and will further push crop maturity. Temps slip closer to normal in the last week of September with no frost/freeze noted into early October. It’s too late for a cold weather event to cause yield losses.
**10 Day EU Weather Model Rainfall Forecast:
** 10 EU Weather Model South American Rainfall Forecast:
** September Australian Rainfall Percentages of Normal: