** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: Nov soybeans are up 2.50 cents at $9.7125, Dec corn is down .5 of a cent at $3.5425 while Dec Chi wheat is down 3.00 cents at $4.46.
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! The week has started out mixed with soybeans and meal holding in the green, while corn, wheat and soyoil futures post modest losses. Over 13,000 contracts of December corn, over 12,000 contracts of November soybeans, and over 7,600 contracts of December Chi wheat have changed hands. Such volume is rather normal.
Preliminary CBOT open interest increased 4,306 contracts in corn, while soybeans lost 3,571 contracts and wheat lost 818 contracts.
There was some weekend cutting and opening up of fields in the E Midwest, while rains slowed any harvest progress out west. There is still not enough corn cutting to determine a yield trend, but soybean yields were again disappointing with yields in IL and IN coming up 6-17 BPA below last year. The harvest data continues to suggest that NASS is overstating yield potential.
However, it’s still early and more harvest data is needed. ARC producer clients suggest that harvest progress will be accelerating in C IL, C IN and MO in the last half of the week. Progress in the W Midwest will likely be delayed via wet weather. ARC looks for steady to a 1% decline in corn and soybean GD/EX ratings on this afternoon’s weekly NASS report.
Malaysian palmoil futures closed 31 ringgits lower at 2,796 RM/MT in the most active December contract on producer and fund selling. Much of the decline was based on the CoT report suggesting that managed funds held a record long position in CBOT soyoil futures.
Paris wheat futures are down $.50 euros/MT at $162.75 in thin volume.
Showers/storms produced .25-1.50” of rain across the N Plains and the W Midwest on the weekend. Additional rain is falling across the W Plains and W IA this AM. A Trough/Ridge pattern looks to persist with the best rain chances across the Plains/W Midwest over the next 10 days with limited rainfall for the E Midwest. Midwest producers report that crops are rapidly maturing amid above normal temperatures. There is no indication of any frost/freeze threat into early October. Extremely dry soils are featured across the E Midwest.
South American weather gains in market importance with soy seeding underway in N Brazil while wet weather causes corn/soy planting concern in Argentina. There is no evidence of moisture for Brazilian crop areas north of RGDS for the next 10 days, with dryness becoming an increasing worry. And E Argentina will see more unwanted heavy rains in the 6-10 day period with totals of 1-3.00”. The South American weather pattern is stable, and we see little change in the Brazilian dry weather trend for the next few weeks.
A frost/freeze likely harmed heading Aussie wheat in NSW and Victoria this weekend with Wednesday AM looking equally as a cold. Some lite rain could drop over WA later this week, but E Australia looks dry for another 2 weeks.
The market is looking for NASS yield confirmation from the combine while S America & Australian weather forecasts are concerning. A bottom is forming as the CBOT awaits additional yield data/information.
** 10 Day EU Rainfall Forecast for South America:
