** AgResource Daily Cattle Analysis: Cattle futures finished slightly better last week, and a firm outlook is offered for early trade this morning. This week will feature a number of fundamental reports, starting with the Slaughter report on Thursday, followed by the Cold Storage and Cattle on Feed reports that will be released on Friday. We look for steady/higher trade in the 1st half of the week, with the cattle trade to slow ahead of the CoF report.
Most of last week’s cash business held until late week with cattle mostly selling from $105-106, or steady to $1 higher from the previous week. Beef cutout values finished the week $.46 lower on choice, and $4.12 weaker on select, which wore on slaughter margins. Estimated spot slaughter margins last week penciled out to $144/head, down $19 from a week ago but unchanged from a year ago.
December cattle continue to trade around the 50 day moving average, with support last week developing under $111. A close over $113, sets the next target at 100 day moving average at $115, and then a chart gap at $115.95-117.725 that left following the CoF report.
** US Weather Pattern Discussion: The EU & GFS models are in ok agreement on the forecast. A Trough/Ridge pattern across North America will lead to increased rainfall chances across the Plains and W Midwest in the next 14 days, while the E Midwest and Delta holds in a drier trend. Above normal temps will push crop maturity with dry soils in the E Midwest causing corn/soybean crops to just give up on the 2017 growing season. The Delta and Southern US will see just a few lite showers with the harvest expanding normally.
The EU model 10 day rainfall forecast is attached. Notice the heavy rains slated to drop across; MN, NE, IA and KS. A cold front holds across the area with the E Midwest and Delta holding in a much drier trend. A few showers fell across E IL on the weekend, but in general, the state remains extremely dry. High temps will range from the mid 80s to the mid 90s. Such warmth will push crop maturity. There is no evidence of a Midwest frost event into Oct 4th. The extended range 11-15 day forecast maintains the current flow pattern with near warmth for the Central and Eastern Midwest with limited rainfall. Harvest progress should expand by the final week of September.
** EU Model Rainfall Forecast into September 28th:
