** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: Nov soybeans are unchanged at $9.6775, Dec corn is up 1.0 cent at $3.525 while Dec Chi wheat is up 3.00 cents at $4.465.
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! Mixed and moderate volume has been the overnight CBOT trade with corn, soybeans and wheat trading either side of unchanged. Over 10,000 contracts of December corn and November soybeans, and over 6,000 contracts of December Chi wheat have changed hands.
Preliminary CBOT open interest increased 8,086 contracts in corn and 1,588 contracts in soybeans while losing 3,042 contracts in wheat.
The NASS weekly crop progress and condition report showed that 7% of the US corn and 4% of the US soybean crop have been harvested. 86% of the US corn crop is in the dent phase, while 41% of the soybean crop is dropping leaves, and 13% of the new winter wheat crop has been planted.
US corn ratings held steady at 61% GD/EX while soybean ratings fell 1% to 59% GD/EX. This was the 2nd week in a row that US soybean GD/EX ratings declined 1% and are 14% below last year when GD/EX ratings stood at 73%. The ratings project a US soybean yield under trendline at 48 BPA.
Midwest harvest results are still limited, but are expected to become more numerous in soybeans in the last half of the week across the E Midwest. Soybean yields continue to disappoint in IL, IN and OH with totals 4-16 BPA below last year, while the early harvest in IA has yields off 2-7 BPA.
Soybean seed size and the reduced number of 3 plus soybean pods is hurting early yields. In corn, there just is not enough Midwest cutting to determine a yield trend. The W Midwest will be too wet later in the week and the harvest will be stalled as a front rests across the area. It’s the E Midwest that should see a quickened harvest pace late week and during the weekend.
A Trough/Ridge pattern looks to persist across N America with the best rain chances across the Plains/W Midwest over the next 10 days with limited rainfall for the E Midwest. Temperatures will remain above normal for the Eastern Midwest with more seasonal readings out west. There is no indication of any frost/freeze threat into early October. Extremely dry soils are featured across the E Midwest which will help facilitate harvest operations.
South American weather features continued dryness across most crop areas of Brazil (north of RGDS) while 2 chances for showers/storms exists in Argentina.
The dryness is a worry for Brazilian farmers that want to double crop with winter corn while drier weather is desired across Argentina to help winter wheat mend from all of the rain and facilitate early summer row crop planting.
Eastern Australian wheat will be dry for another 2 weeks while some rain will fall in the far southwest portion of Western Australia. The weekend NSW freeze produced additional damage and the wheat crop production potential is said to be declining near or below 20.5 MMTs.
Malaysian palmoil futures closed 35 ringgits lower at 2,770 RM/MT in the most active December contract. Paris wheat futures are up $.50 euros/MT at $162.00 basis December. Chinese soymeal buying remained active on rising prices.
There is no inspiration from the overnight CBOT trade as traders debate the correctness of last week’s NASS yield estimates with early yield data rather mixed.
** 10 Day EU Weather Model Rainfall Forecast for South America:
