** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: Nov soybeans are down 6.00 cents at $9.64, Dec corn is down .75 of a cent at $3.4925 while Dec Chi wheat is down 1.50 cents at $4.4825.
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! The CBOT price pattern of up one day and down the next continued with CBOT corn, soybeans and wheat taking back a portion of Wednesday’s rally in more active volume. The US dollar was firmer with world equity markets largely mixed in the wake of Wednesday’s US Central Bank policy changes. ARC research expects this price pattern of back-and-forth at the CBOT to continue as harvest pushes ahead.
Overnight CBOT trade volume featured just over 8,000 contracts of December corn, just over 17,000 contracts of November soybeans, and just over 8,000 contracts of December Chi wheat.
Preliminary CBOT open interest showed an increase of 8,689 contracts in corn, 8,764 contracts in soybeans and 1,462 contracts in Chicago wheat.
The harvest is quickening across the Midwest as 90 degree heat and steady winds that are pushing crop maturity and seed dry down. In the drier areas of the E Midwest, producers are complaining that soybean seed moisture has fallen below 10% which is causing harvest problems and a loss of bushel weight. Nearly all of the early yields are below to well below last year, it’s just a question of degree. Corn yields are faring better than corn across the Midwest.
The next 7-10 days should help the industry better define US corn/soybean yield potential? In IL, corn yields are down 5-20 BPA from last year with soybeans off 6-20 BPA. IA yield results are similar in the trend, but corn yields are faring better (than IL) with losses more in a range of 3-12 BPA. Based on the early harvested yield data, ARC sees no reason to alter our 166-167 BPA US corn yield or 47-48 US BPA soybean yield estimates.
The Central US weather forecast features another 5-6 days of hot/dry weather across the C and E Midwest, with widespread showers for the Plains and the NW Midwest. High temps are summerlike ranging from the 80’s to the mid 90’s with cooling noted in the last half of next week. Other than an isolated shower, the E Midwest/Delta does not show a good chance of precipitation into Oct 4th. World weather offers concern. Brazilian crop areas north of RGDS look to hold in a hot/dry weather pattern into Sept 30th with additional heavy rains slated to drop across Argentina next week. Ukraine/Russian farmers are planting a new winter wheat crop into dust amid a lack of rain with dry weather to persist into October 2nd. And the Australian weather forecast has limited rainfall chances for the next 10-14 days with wheat crop stress increasing. The world weather forecast needs to be closely followed.
Malaysian palmoil futures closed down 33 ringgits higher at $2,737 RM/MT with Paris wheat up $1.00 euros at $164/MT. Chinese corn prices are steady, with strong demand for soymeal noted this week from livestock feeders.
The markets are chopping on a lack of fresh news and the advancing US row crop harvest. Harvested yield data to date does not validate NASS estimates, but how far below the September forecast is being debated. November soybeans have to close above $9.80 to confirm a new trend. Buy breaks/sell rallies.
** 10 Day EU Model Rainfall Forecast for South America;