** AgResource Daily Cattle Analysis: Cattle futures closed with strong gains on Wednesday and a steady/higher outlook is offered for early trade this morning. Strong demand developed in the cattle market just after the morning open, that lifted the cattle and feeder cattle futures to strong gains with prices accelerating following the Fed Cattle Exchange sale. Both markets stopped short of limit gains, though October feeders finished near a 4 month high, while December live cattle marked the best close in more than a month.
The Fed Cattle Exchange had light trade of 636 head at an average price of $106.67. The FCE average has often been under the 5 area average, though this week’s business was nearly $1 over last week’s 5 area average. The CME rally accelerated following FCE trade, on ideas that the rest of this week’s cattle business could be higher.
December cattle finished more than $1 over the 100-day moving average, and is again trading back into a chart Our longer term view is bearish on rallies as we expect record large red meat production keeps US livestock prices under pressure into late in the year.
** US Weather Pattern Discussion: The EU & GFS models are good agreement. A Trough/Ridge pattern will hold across North America and produce heavy rains across the Plains and NW Midwest. The fat portions of the Midwest and Delta hold in a hot/dry trend. Above normal temps will push crop maturity in the Central and Eastern Midwest into early next week. Some record heat is expected. The Delta and Gulf States will see just a few lite showers with the harvest progress brisk. Crop maturity and seed dry down will be pushed. No Midwest frost is foreseen into October 6th.
The EU model 10 day rainfall forecast is attached. Notice the heavy rains have been pushed north and west from prior expectations and now include; ND, SD,
N MN, NE, KS and TX As a front stalls across the area. A high pressure Ridge is in control of the rest of the Midwest and Delta in a much drier flow. Notice that the track of Maria has held with heavy rain bands getting close to the Eastern US shoreline. Central US high temps will range from the 80’s to mid 90’s for another 5-6 days before a slow cooling trend evolves. More seasonal 50s/60s are offered in early October.
**10 Day EU Rainfall Forecast for North America: