US Forecast Drier Again; Models in Better Agreement: The GFS is again drier in the 8-15 day period, which puts it in much better agreement with its EU & Canadian counterparts. Recent rainfall has been welcomed (5-day totals are at left), additional showers occur across the Great Lakes regions on the weekend, and near complete dryness resumes thereafter.
Following this weekend’s frontal pass, a more zonally flowing jet stream will be established. This pattern will keep meaningful precip isolated to sections of Canada in the 6-15 day period. Abnormal warmth will be ongoing, through freezing overnight lows will be more common across the N Plains and Upper Midwest beyond Oct 20th.
Guidance on the 16-30 day period suggests that dry and warmer than normal weather is likely to persist through the first half of November. Seasonal outlooks, too, indicate below normal precip and above normal temps into early winter.
Models Wetter in Southern Brazil; Way Too Dry in Center/North: The South American forecast is wet for Southern Brazil, but little changed elsewhere. Cumulative moisture will lag further behind last year into late October.
The graphic show Sep 1-Oct 25 rainfall in Mato Grosso, and shows that this year’s pattern is indeed abnormally dry! Rain will be needed badly in November.
Complete dryness persists across all but RGDS in far S Brazil over the next 7-10 days. The S American jet stream thereafter shifts a bit northward, allowing rains to expand into Parana, but this expansion won’t reach into key areas of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais! Virtually no rain has fallen here in the last 7 days. The 16-20 day forecast is also dry in Northern and Central Brazil. Heavy precip in S Brazil will exacerbate wheat quality issues, and could likely harm yields.