Pictured: The Climate Impact Company week 2 ahead temperature and precipitation anomaly outlook.
Comment: GFS and ECM indicate a weak MJO phase_5 during the period. The MJO in this position in October lead to strong warming in the Central and East. Granted this time southern Canada and parts of the northern U.S. are snow covered. However, south of the snow cover temperatures could be quite warm. The ECM ensemble is warmer than shown above (GFS cooler). The outlook definitely is very cold over the wet/central Canada to Montana stretch where locally generated arctic air is present. However the Southwest to Texas is very warm and that warmth is more likely to surge north than Canadian cold to surge south.
Pictured: The Climate Impact Company week 3 ahead temperature and precipitation anomaly outlook.
Comment: MJO (crossing tropical Atlantic) favors expanding northern cold Thanksgiving week while the South remains warm.
Pictured: The Climate Impact Company week 4 ahead temperature and precipitation anomaly outlook.
Comment: La Nina look into early December.