Days 1-5: ALERT for excessive South-Central/Southeast Europe rains. Very typical of the late summer/autumn climate across Europe is evolution of yet another potent upper level trough centered on Italy and forecast to dump heavy rains across Italy especially northern areas to Croatia to Albania. ECMWF forecasts up to 4 in. of rain! Most of Europe is warmer than normal during the period.
Days 6-10: ALERT for Southeast Europe to Ukraine heavy rain. Borderline strong anomalous warmth across Western Russia. The deep trough over Southeast Europe lingers early-to-middle period. ECMWF indicates excessive rainfall Southeast Europe to Ukraine. Not all models agree with the wet forecast.
Days 11-15: Broad range of forecast solutions but consensus keeps southeast portions of Europe wetter than normal. Western Russia is warmer than normal.
Week 3 (Nov. 19-25) and 4 (Nov. 26-Dec. 1) ahead: Below average forecast confidence indicating a wetter than normal regime across central and southeast Europe week 3 ahead then drier week 4 ahead. Western Russia is warmer and drier than normal each week.
Pictured: High impact weather/climate across South-Central/Southeast Europe for the next 10 days.