Days 1-5: Heavy rain episode exiting the southeast Australia wheat region early this week. ECMWF forecasts 1-2.25 in. of rain for southeast New South Wales. Otherwise this week is dry except minor showers due to onshore ocean fetch around high pressure building east of Australia into midweek for northern Queensland. Southern Western Australia also becomes wet mid-week. Cool across Southeast Australia with borderline excessive heat Southwest Australia prior to cooling midweek rainfall.
Days 6-10: HEAT ALERT for 2 locations: South-central Western Australia and far southeast South Australia. Wheat areas of southeast South Australia are effected. Temperature departures from normal are in the +15F to +20F range. Dividing the two hot zones is an area of moderate rainfall stretching from central Northern Territory to west-central South Australia.
Days 11-15: HEAT ALERT for eastern Australia. Turning very wet central and south-central (and possibly) southwest continent. The eastern areas are drier and hotter than normal. The GFS operational model is hottest (and driest) in the eastern areas. Dry/hot weather risk is for northern wheat areas only.
Week 3 (Nov. 19-25) and 4 (Nov. 26-Dec. 1) ahead: Models indicate a wet/cool scenario across central portions of Australia week 3 then hotter/drier western areas with the east is marginal cool/wet in the East late month. The week 3 forecast is reasonable but the week 4 outlook is made with low confidence.
Pictured: High impact temperature and precipitation episodes across Australia the next 15 days.