** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: January soybeans are down 2.25 cents at $9.9175, Dec corn is down .75 of a cent at $3.4725, while Dec Chi wheat is down 3.25 cents at $4.275.
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! The overnight CBOT trading session started out mixed to slightly higher in soybeans, but the trade turned lower in the AM hours in typical Turnaround Tuesday fashion.
The volume of trade to date is just over 8,500 contracts of December corn, just over 10,000 contracts of January soybeans, and just over 6,000 contracts of December Chi wheat – below recent day volume totals.
Preliminary CBOT open interest totals for Monday show a 8,203 contract drop in corn, an 86 contract decline in soybeans, and a 2,294 contract fall in Chi wheat. Funds have started to roll December futures positions forward. There were 33 contracts of November soybeans tendered for delivery.
NASS reported that that 90% of the US soybean crop and 70% of the US corn crop is harvested. The US soybean harvest pace is near the 5 year average while corn is about 6 days behind the 5 year average of 83%. And the US winter wheat crop is 91% planted and rated 55% GD/EX, up 3% on the week.
China soybean importers will sign new purchase agreements with US exporters as President Trump prepares to visit China. No tonnage totals have been released, but traders are well aware that the framed contracts do not imply new or greater business for the US soy producers – just political promises. These framed soy contract signings have become commonplace in recent years.
European wheat futures are slightly lower with Paris December down $.25 euros at $162.50/MT. Malaysian December palmoil futures closed with a 2 ringgit loss at 2,766 RM/MT. Dalian corn and soymeal futures closed little changed on low volume as speculators seek more active markets.
South America weather is favorable for the next 10-14 days. Additional rain will benefit Northern Brazilian soy germination for the next 7-8 days while some needed drier weather advances spring planting across Argentina and Southern Brazil. There is no evidence of any extreme heat as high temps to range from the 70’s to the lower 90’s.
The extended model forecasts have changed and offer drier weather across N and NE Brazil in the 10-14 day period with some budding heat. How long this shift to a drier N Brazilian weather pattern will last is being debated. It’s a pattern shift that was not evident yesterday, and needs to be monitored with Mato Grosso and the rest of N Brazil running low on soil moisture.
World crude oil prices are little changed, but tensions remain high in the Mideast. The US dollar is stronger on a flight to safety for investors.
The USDA November report looms Thursday, but amid rising Mideast political tensions and less certain S American weather, we doubt any CBOT decline can be sustained. Large fund grain shorts make the CBOT vulnerable to a rally as seasonal price trends have shifted upwards.
** EU Model 10 Day Rainfall Forecast:
