Pictured: Heavy rain forecast for Brazil each of the next 5-day periods.
Excessive rainfall is forecast, emphasized by the GFS operational (model) across central and east-central Brazil (northern soybean areas) the next 10 days shifting south to southwest Brazil (core of soybean areas) in the 11-15 day period.
The cause of the heavy rainfall is a north-to-south-to east fetch of tropical moisture from an area of persistent heavy convection in the central/south Caribbean Sea around a subtropical high pressure area mostly east of Brazil. The Caribbean convection is forecast to linger over the central and southern Caribbean Sea through the middle third of November. Most of the Caribbean Sea is somewhat warmer than normal helping to fuel the intensity and aerial coverage of the convection.
During the next 5 days up to 5 in. of rain is possible over northeast Mato Grosso. In the 6-10 day period Mato Grosso to Goias receives 2-4 in. of rain. In the 11-15 day period the heavy rain wedges southward across the core of soybean growing areas in southern Brazil.
