AgResource Daily Farm Marketing Advice for Monday: 1/ Corn Producers: Sell 10% of the estimated ‘18 corn harvest at $4.01 basis Dec ‘18 futures. 2/ Corn Producers: Sell 10% of estimated ‘19 corn production at $4.17 basis Dec ‘19 futures. 3/ Corn Producers: Sell 15% if the 2017 corn crop if March ‘18 corn futures reach $3.72.
6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: January soybeans are down 1.75 cents at $9.855. Dec corn is down 1.0 cent at $3.4225, while Dec Chi wheat is down 5.0 cents at $4.265.
Good Morning! CBOT prices began the week a bit lower amid a slightly wetter forecast in Central Brazil this AM and as major exporter currencies are weaker. The Russian ruble has fallen to new lows for this move, and currencies in South America are down very slightly. Brazilians producers are likely to sell yet more beans into the domestic pipeline on this break in the real, and particularly as farmers in Mato Grosso become more comfortable with the arrival of the wet season.
An active flow of moisture is offered to Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and western Goias by all three of the major forecasting models over the week ahead. Accumulation is estimated upwards of 2-4”, which is at/slightly above normal for mid-November. Vegetation health maps, which will be updated early this week, are expected to show much improved conditions in Center-West Brazil. ARC has mentioned that Argentine dryness is getting a little concerning, but so far there’s been no indication of crop stress.
Argentina’s early planted corn is rated as 91% GD/EX, and farmers there will now push to finish seeding the soybean crop. We do mention rainfall will be limited to pockets of Buenos Aires, Santa Fe and Entre Rios in the extended period, and red flags will be raised if normal rain doesn’t return to Argentina by early December. As such, ARC doubts row crop values can fall too far in the near term, particularly with the US harvest nearly over.
A relatively warmer temp profile will be established across a majority of the Central US within the next 24 hours, and the return of bitter cold is not indicated through November 20-21. Lite precip will continue to favor the E Midwest, but elsewhere near complete dryness will continue into late month. ARC estimates that as of Sunday US soybean harvesting reached 95-97% complete. The US corn harvest is expected to have reached 82-85% complete, still behind average/last year but with no major weather issues forecast in the next two weeks, the US corn crop should be fully gathered by the first week of Dec. Winter wheat crop conditions will be steady at 54-56% GD/EX.
In international markets, the Dalian corn futures in China began the week up a marginal 5 yuan/MT. Malaysian palm oil fell 38 ringgits. EU milling wheat futures are down €.50-.75/MT. Spot crude is up $.10/barrel at $56.85.
This afternoon’s CFTC report is expected to include a managed fund short position in corn worth 210,000 contracts, vs. 203,000 the prior week; a net short in wheat worth 105,000, vs. 110,000 a week ago, and a net long in soybeans of 50,000, vs. 41,000 a week ago.
South American weather will have a more direct influence on price determination beginning in late November, and amid the development of La Nina and developing dryness in Argentina, ongoing sideways trading is expected.
