** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: January soybeans are up 1.00 cent at $9.7525, Dec corn is down .75 of a cent at $3.4175, while Dec Chi wheat is down .5 of a cent at $4.2375.
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! Mixed and rather average volume has been the CBOT overnight. Corn, soybeans and wheat have traded either side of unchanged, with soybeans finding a bid on improved Chinese interest and firming domestic cash basis bids. The corn and wheat markets are slightly lower amid a lack of fresh US demand news.
There were 150 soybeans tendered for delivery against November in the last day of trade. No strong commercial stoppers are evident.
Monday’s CBOT open interest surged 23,214 contracts in corn, 3,582 in soybeans and 11,155 contracts in Chi wheat on the lower trading session.
NASS reported that 93% of the US soybean crop and 83% of the US corn crop is now harvested. The US corn harvest is behind the historical averages in WI and much of the Eastern Midwest. 95% of the US winter wheat crop is planted with 54% of the crop rated GD/EX, down 1% from the prior week. Wheat conditions in the W Plains are below last year and the 5 year average.
The weekly CoT report showed that managed money is net short 125,000 contracts of Chicago wheat (up 14,000 contracts), short 206,000 contracts of corn (up 2,000 contracts), and long 47,000 contracts of soybeans (up 6,000 contracts). Managed money is also long 8,400 contracts of soymeal and 54,000 contracts of soyoil (up 10,000 contracts).
Limited rainfall is expected across Argentina in the next 10-14 days. La Nina has now formed and dryness worries are expanding with a dry weather trend extending backwards for the past 6 weeks. The forecast calls for another 2-3 days of 90-95 degree heat followed by cooling on Thursday/Friday, and then the return of 90’s next week. The heat/dryness is causing farmers to slow or halt their soybean seeding awaiting a germinating rain. The market is likely to play more homage to dry Argentine weather starting next week.
The Brazilian weather forecast is wet with heavy rains expected across the northern and central areas of the crop belt through early December. Some areas of N Brazil look to receive upwards of 5-8.00” of rain in the next 2 weeks which will continue a trend of soil moisture restoration. Temperatures look to hold around seasonal levels with highs in the 80’s to low 90’s.
Warm and dry weather will persist across the US Great Plains. There is no evidence of any meaningful rainfall chances into December 1st. Soils will continue to dry which will edge US HRW wheat crop ratings lower.
Malaysian palmoil futures hit a 4 week low following CBOT soyoil futures. Paris wheat futures are up .25 euros at $159.75 euros/MT while Dalian corn and soymeal futures traded mixed in expanding volume.
The corn/wheat markets need to push to new lows to sustain bearish trends with January soybeans likely to catch a bid against $9.70-9.75 chart support.
