Weather Favorable in Brazil; Still Too Dry in Argentina: Over the next 10 days the mean position of South America’s jet stream will stay aligned just north of major Argentine growing areas. This will force ample moisture into the whole of Brazil through late November, which is a positive, but will also work to strip rainfall potential from Argentina. Cumulative Oct-Nov rainfall in Cordoba, Argentina, which accounts for 30-35% of the country’s corn & soybean production is attached. There’s only a “loose” correlation between Oct/Nov rainfall in yield, but declining soil moisture there become more important by mid-December. Only lite showers are offered to Argentina over the next two weeks.
However, near daily showers will continue in Central Brazil, with cumulative totals there pegged at 4-7” through Dec 1, or some 130-200% of normal. Vegetation health in Brazil will continue to improve.
Plains Dryness Lasts into December: There were no major changes made the US rainfall outlook through November, and even 16-30 day forecasts maintain a rather stagnant US weather pattern. Current soil moisture across the HRW Belt is more than adequate for early growth, but the trend into winter needs watching, particular as above normal temps look to continue across the Western US.
A very broad NW upper air pattern will stay intact across North America through the balance of the month. This will at times send lite/moderate precip, and cooler than normal temps, in to the Great Lakes and Eastern US through the period. This pattern will also act to block meaningful rainfall from the remainder of the US. High temps across the Southern and Central Plains will reach into the 50s, 60s even low 70s. This general pattern holds throughout the 8-15 day period.