Models in Better Agreement; Plains Drought Unchanged: The EU & GFS models are in much better agreement this afternoon, with GFS having trended drier across the Western Plains in the 6-10 day period. It remains that meaningful precip – some excessive – will favor the Eastern US into early April. This week’s drought monitor showed little change across the HRW Belt in spite of late weekend rainfall in KS. Exceptional drought conditions will expand a bit further in TX & OK moving forward.
A fairly wide band of rainfall impacts much of the Corn Belt on the weekend. Totals of .25-.50” will be common in IA, IL, IN & KY. Heavy precip then lingers across the Delta/Southeast next Wed-Sat, and NOAA’s updated QPF indicates totals upwards of 4-5+” in E TX, E OK, AR, MO, IL, TN and KY. Temps will be warming across the S Plains, but stay at/below normal elsewhere. Planting progress/fieldwork will be limited in the next 10 days
South American Pattern Unchanged; Dryness in Eastern Brazil Only Temporary: The 7-day precip forecast is below, and pattern of steady rain continues across much of Brazil, while a very late season pattern change is not indicated in Argentina. The far eastern section of Brazil’s safrinha corn belt will be dry in the near term, but the models are in general agreement that normal moisture returns beginning March 30-31. Soil moisture is more than adequate for early corn development in Brazil, and a premature end to wet season is not expected over the next 30 days.
Heavy but isolated showers will impact N Argentina this weekend, but only very lite and scattered showers are offered to the heart of Argentina’s ag belt. Complete dryness returns to Argentina in the 4-10 day period, and rain chances tend to erode seasonally in April. High temps in Argentina will be more seasonal, but continue in the low/mid-80s, thus suggesting top/subsoil moisture will continue to decline.