US Forecast is Wet into Late May; Planting to Expand In East into Friday: The graphic attached displays precip accumulation since Friday, and the E Corn Belt enjoyed a lasting period of dryness, that was so badly needed. Another 60 hours of warm/dry weather persists before a more active pattern of moisture returns. The GFS & EU models are in agreement that the second half of May will be wet. Temps vary, but neither excessive heat nor excessive cold is indicated
A broad Trough/Ridge pattern continues into Wed/Thursday, and this will sustain a period of dryness and normal/above normal temps across much of the Corn Belt through the period. Thereafter, cooler Canadian air presses into the Central US, which will place the storm track directly across the Ag Belt. Lite/moderate shower activity is forecast every 1-3 days during May 18-30. Cumulative rainfall is pegged at 2-4”, which will be spread evenly across the Plains, Midwest and Delta. Heavier regional totals will favor MN/WI and pockets of the S Midwest.
One More Rain Event in Brazil Before Dry Season Begins: Abnormal rainfall will continue across Central Brazil into the coming weekend, but thereafter Brazil’s dry season looks to finally arrive – and stay. The graphic at left displays the GFS’s 7-day precip forecast, with Brazil’s safrinha corn belt highlighted. Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana and Sao Paulo, which account for 50% of second crop corn production, will benefit most in the next 6-7 days.
An unseasonably northward alignment of the S American jet stream will push moisture into Central Brazil into Sat/Sun. Some lingering moisture is offered to Southern Brazil early next week, but seasonal Ridge of high pressure returns to C and N Brazil next week and very likely stays anchored there through summer. Assuming the 7-day forecast verifies rainfall May 1-22 will exist at 60-200% of normal. Soil moisture will be mostly adequate for the balance of pollination, which will be ongoing through early June.