US Forecast Trends Cooler in Late May: Summer-like temps will be widespread across the Central US through the next 72 hours, but abnormally cool reading return thereafter. A cooler Canadian air mass forces the jet stream southward beginning late in the coming weekend, and the major forecasting models are in agreement that below normal temps will persist into very last week of the month. NOAA’s extended range outlook is below, and the lack of growing degree days will keep emergence/growth slower than normal.
Moderate to heavy rain will sweep through the C and N Plains in the next 24 hours. A second frontal system will work across a majority of the Central US Fri-Mon, with cumulative totals estimated at 1-4”, the heaviest of which will favor KS, NE, IA and MN.
A drier but much cooler pattern will be established May 22-30, and lows will range in the upper 40s/low 50s across the Dakotas and Great Lakes. May weather correlates poorly with yield, but the coming pattern is likely to push corn pollination deeper into July, which will need close monitoring.
Additional Soil Moisture Boost Offered to Europe, Black Sea: The EU & GFS models are in agreement that normal rainfall and near normal temps will continue across the bulk of Europe through the next 10 days, and regionally heavy rainfall is forecast in key areas of E Ukraine and Southern Russia through the period. Decent boosts in soil moisture are implied across France, Germany and Russia, further improving vegetation health prior to wheat’s heading stage in June. Recall that precip in April ranged from just 10-40% of normal across nearly all of W Europe, and so ongoing moisture is welcomed. The 10-day rain forecast is attached.
A moderately deep low pressure Trough will continue to circle of the W Coast of Europe into May 23rd. This will act to push a steady flow of rain across the continent into the weekend, while lite but near daily shower activity persist across the Black Sea. Two-week precip is estimated at 80-200% of normal. However, June and July Black Sea weather is critical and the forecast can often dramatically change in a short period of time.