US Forecast Stays Cool into June; Favorable Summer Predicted: The near term forecast is wetter nearby and still lacks any major pattern shift to warmer temps through the end of May. Highs will peak Fri/Saturday, before cooling thereafter, and recently planted crop growth will be slowed.
NOAA also released its updated summer climate forecast this AM, and the outlook through late August has trended a bit cooler. In its text discussion, NOAA states the recent and upcoming boost in Central US soil moisture will limit excessive heat in the months ahead. A neutral ENSO is also indicated through late summer, which will keep precipitation through the period close to normal. This week’s drought monitor shows ongoing dryness in parts of TX/E OK, and across the far Southeastern US, but otherwise drought is absent. NOAA’s drought forecast through summer is attached, and additional improvement is expected in the S Plains and even AL/GA. Yet long range forecasts have not performed very well since 2016.
NOAA’s summer temp (top) and precip outlooks are displayed graphically at left.
In the near term, heavy shower activity has begun across the Western Plains, and will expand gradually eastward into Sat/Sunday. Rainfall accumulation from this system is pegged in a range of 1-4”, and the heaviest amounts are still expected to impact OK, KS, MO and IA. Pockets of S IL, S IN and KY will also see amounts of 2-3”, and fieldwork across much of the Central US will be halted temporarily.
Beginning next week, a cooler Canadian air mass settles into the Plains and W Midwest, acting to pull temps to levels 5-15 degrees below normal next week. Meaningful rain will be isolated to the parts of the S and far E Corn Belt. The 11-15 day forecast is a bit drier, but spotty showers are likely. Temps stay cool in the extended period, and while drought should not be an issue, a lasting period of warmth and dryness is now desired.